Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the Arctic Ocean

Arnell, N.W. (2005) Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 110, (D07105), 105-[9pp]. (doi:10.1029/2004JD005348).


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Observational evidence suggests that river inflows to the Arctic Ocean have increased over the last 30 years. Continued increases have the potential to alter the freshwater balance in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans and hence the thermohaline circulation. Simulations with a macroscale hydrological model and climate change scenarios derived from six climate models and two emissions scenarios suggest increases of up to 31% in river inflows to the Arctic by the 2080s under high emissions and up to 24% under lower emissions, although there are large differences between climate models. Uncertainty analysis suggests low sensitivity to model form and parameterization but higher sensitivity to the input data used to drive the model. The addition of up to 0.048 sverdrup (Sv, 106 m3 s?1) is a large proportion of the 0.06–0.15 Sv of additional freshwater that may trigger thermohaline collapse. Changes in the spatial distribution of inflows to the Arctic Ocean may influence circulation patterns within the ocean.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1029/2004JD005348
ISSNs: 0148-0227 (print)
Related URLs:
Keywords: Climate change, river runoff, Arctic Ocean
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Geography > Environmental Processes and Change
ePrint ID: 15798
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
8 April 2005Published
13 August 2004Submitted
Date Deposited: 07 Jun 2005
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 11:30

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