Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploriong influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets


Oikonomidis, Anastasios and Johnson, Johnnie (2010) Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploriong influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets. In, 24th European Conference on Operational Research, Lisbon, PT, 11 - 14 Jul 2010.

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Description/Abstract

A dataset of 55,880 football events is analyzed to explore the favourite longshot bias in the bookmaker betting market. Limited dependent variable modelling of game outcomes is employed to identify sources of variation in the observed bias. It is concluded that it is consistently expressed through time, but varies significantly across leagues. It is shown that the bias is caused by bookmakers offering better odds for popular bets in order to increase their customer basis. Finally, it is proved that league specific fundamental information causes variation in the magnitude of the bias.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Management
ePrint ID: 161075
Date Deposited: 29 Jul 2010 11:55
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 19:16
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/161075

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