Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe


Abel, Guy J. (2010) Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 173, (4), 797-825. (doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00636.x).

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Description/Abstract

A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and the receiving countries. For the last situation, reported counts rarely match owing to differences in definitions and data collection systems. We report counts harmonized by using correction factors estimated from a constrained optimization procedure. Factors are applied to scale data that are known to be of a reliable standard, creating an incomplete migration flow table of harmonized values. Cells for which no reliable reported flows exist are then estimated from a negative binomial regression model fitted by using an expectation–maximization (EM) type of algorithm. Covariate information for this model is drawn from international migration theory. Finally, measures of precision for all missing cell estimates are derived by using the supplemented EM algorithm. Recent data on international migration between countries in Europe are used to illustrate the methodology. The results represent a complete table of comparable flows which can be used by regional policy makers and social scientists to understand population behaviour and change better

Item Type: Article
ISSNs: 1467-985X
Keywords: constrained optimization, flow tables, international migration, migration estimation, negative binomial regression, supplemented expectation–maximization algorithm
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Social and Human Sciences > Social Sciences > Social Statistics & Demography
ePrint ID: 162933
Date Deposited: 11 Aug 2011 11:25
Last Modified: 28 Mar 2014 15:20
Projects:
Centre for Population Change: Understanding Population Change in the 21st Century
Funded by: ESRC (RES-625-28-0001)
Led by: Jane Cecelia Falkingham
1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/162933

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