Using Age and Spatial Flow Structures in the Indirect Estimation of Migration Streams

Raymer, James and Rogers, Andrei (2005) Using Age and Spatial Flow Structures in the Indirect Estimation of Migration Streams. Southampton, UK, Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, 36pp. (S3RI Applications and Policy Working Papers, A05/07).


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This paper presents a modeling strategy for describing and estimating interregional migration flows. The categorical log-linear model is used to demonstrate various approaches to estimation, including direct and indirect methods. And estimates of known data on interdivisional migration patterns in the United States during the 1995-2000 period are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the various log-linear models. The important aspects of the modeling strategy presented in this paper include parameter interpretation, incorporation of auxiliary or a priori information, and assessment of the various model predictions. The results show that capturing the interactions between origins and destinations are very important for accurate predictions.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute
ePrint ID: 17457
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
27 September 2005Made publicly available
Date Deposited: 27 Sep 2005
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 11:33

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