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Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability

Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability
Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability
Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10–20cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (<4cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height changes in the northeast Atlantic will exceed 0.4m. In addition, wave-direction changes of around 20° per unit NAO index have been documented for one location. Such changes raise the possibility of consequential alteration of coastal erosion.
sea level, waves, north atlantic oscillation, regional variability, scenarios
1364-503X
1329-1358
Tsimplis, M.N.
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Woolf, D.K.
aeb210e8-5fd5-4dd4-903e-6d4ef2df9abe
Osborn, T.J.
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Wakelin, S.
816944f3-a6eb-4402-a539-be88eb653a6d
Wolf, J.
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Flather, R.
cbc47e1a-8788-4b53-bc46-ed4bd8513960
Shaw, A.G.P.
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Woodworth, P.
40c1cf79-9f8f-4067-b407-782e533f032c
Challenor, P.
a7e71e56-8391-442c-b140-6e4b90c33547
Blackman, D.
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Pert, F.
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Yan, Z.
21c82faa-4f27-449d-a7ba-dc7618e989f9
Jevrejeva, S.
08a8c44c-6ea5-4e5e-bf8c-91a75b1e5117
Tsimplis, M.N.
df6dd749-cda4-46ec-983c-bf022d737031
Woolf, D.K.
aeb210e8-5fd5-4dd4-903e-6d4ef2df9abe
Osborn, T.J.
46450aea-60a7-4281-808d-946418793a4a
Wakelin, S.
816944f3-a6eb-4402-a539-be88eb653a6d
Wolf, J.
13cf5067-f460-4851-9a09-d6bf7efe575b
Flather, R.
cbc47e1a-8788-4b53-bc46-ed4bd8513960
Shaw, A.G.P.
4afa8737-18d4-4c88-98a4-55572fb51562
Woodworth, P.
40c1cf79-9f8f-4067-b407-782e533f032c
Challenor, P.
a7e71e56-8391-442c-b140-6e4b90c33547
Blackman, D.
354b025f-6255-49ce-a1fb-34c12eb1d83f
Pert, F.
4cb20fd8-726d-4ffb-9b97-a0d4e6516d4a
Yan, Z.
21c82faa-4f27-449d-a7ba-dc7618e989f9
Jevrejeva, S.
08a8c44c-6ea5-4e5e-bf8c-91a75b1e5117

Tsimplis, M.N., Woolf, D.K., Osborn, T.J., Wakelin, S., Wolf, J., Flather, R., Shaw, A.G.P., Woodworth, P., Challenor, P., Blackman, D., Pert, F., Yan, Z. and Jevrejeva, S. (2005) Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 363 (1831), 1329-1358. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2005.1571).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10–20cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (<4cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height changes in the northeast Atlantic will exceed 0.4m. In addition, wave-direction changes of around 20° per unit NAO index have been documented for one location. Such changes raise the possibility of consequential alteration of coastal erosion.

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More information

Published date: 15 June 2005
Keywords: sea level, waves, north atlantic oscillation, regional variability, scenarios

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 17495
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/17495
ISSN: 1364-503X
PURE UUID: f995a7c5-f123-4fd5-957f-a46f3e8a9a15

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Date deposited: 10 Oct 2005
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 06:00

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Contributors

Author: M.N. Tsimplis
Author: D.K. Woolf
Author: T.J. Osborn
Author: S. Wakelin
Author: J. Wolf
Author: R. Flather
Author: A.G.P. Shaw
Author: P. Woodworth
Author: P. Challenor
Author: D. Blackman
Author: F. Pert
Author: Z. Yan
Author: S. Jevrejeva

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