A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales
Abel, Guy J., Bijak, Jakub and Raymer, James (2010) A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. Population Trends, 141, (Autumn), 95-114. (PMID:20927031).
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Description/Abstract
We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population totals to 2033. These results are compared to the most recent projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to test the effect of changes in the prior uncertainty for a single parameter. Finally, in-sample forecasts are compared with actual population and previous official projections. The article ends with some conclusions and recommendations for future work.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| ISSNs: | 0307-4463 (print) 2040-1590 (electronic) |
| Related URLs: | |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Divisions: | University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Social Statistics University Structure - Pre August 2011 > Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute Faculty of Social and Human Sciences > Social Sciences > Social Statistics & Demography |
| Item ID: | 182735 |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Apr 2011 10:19 |
| Last Modified: | 03 May 2012 16:24 |
| Contributors: | Abel, Guy J. (Author) Bijak, Jakub (Author) Raymer, James (Author) |
| Date: | 1 September 2010 |
| Status: | Published |
| Publisher: | ESRC Centre for Population Change |
| URI: | http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/182735 |
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A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. (deposited 22 Jul 2010 07:14)
- A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. (deposited 28 Apr 2011 10:19) [Currently Displayed]
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