A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales
Abel, Guy J., Bijak, Jakub and Raymer, James (2010) A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. Population Trends, 141, (1), Autumn Issue, 95-114. (doi:10.1057/pt.2010.23). (PMID:20927031).
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We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population totals to 2033. These results are compared to the most recent projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to test the effect of changes in the prior uncertainty for a single parameter. Finally, in-sample forecasts are compared with actual population and previous official projections. The article ends with some conclusions and recommendations for future work.
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HA Statistics|
|Divisions:||University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Social Statistics
University Structure - Pre August 2011 > Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute
Faculty of Social and Human Sciences > Social Sciences > Social Statistics & Demography
|Date Deposited:||28 Apr 2011 10:19|
|Last Modified:||27 Mar 2014 19:38|
Centre for Population Change: Understanding Population Change in the 21st Century
Funded by: ESRC (RES-625-28-0001)
Led by: Jane Cecelia Falkingham
1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013
|Publisher:||ESRC Centre for Population Change|
|RDF:||RDF+N-Triples, RDF+N3, RDF+XML, Browse.|
Available Versions of this Item
A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. (deposited 22 Jul 2010 07:14)
- A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. (deposited 28 Apr 2011 10:19) [Currently Displayed]
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