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Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle
Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle
Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.
1862-4065
207-222
McLeod, E.
85d7750f-582a-4174-a480-c1df65d99a38
Hinkel, J.
ad8c8187-dcca-42f5-84e0-75d30a1e7875
Vafeidis, A.T.
1822479b-7b92-432e-aab2-7c6f413d72e9
Nicholls, R. J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Harvey, N.
89356dbf-c9c7-40c3-8bc6-94c5078909c2
Salm, R.
1e266976-06c2-497e-8566-762bf5a76c13
McLeod, E.
85d7750f-582a-4174-a480-c1df65d99a38
Hinkel, J.
ad8c8187-dcca-42f5-84e0-75d30a1e7875
Vafeidis, A.T.
1822479b-7b92-432e-aab2-7c6f413d72e9
Nicholls, R. J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Harvey, N.
89356dbf-c9c7-40c3-8bc6-94c5078909c2
Salm, R.
1e266976-06c2-497e-8566-762bf5a76c13

McLeod, E., Hinkel, J., Vafeidis, A.T., Nicholls, R. J., Harvey, N. and Salm, R. (2010) Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle. Sustainability Science, 5 (2), 207-222. (doi:10.1007/s11625-010-0105-1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.

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Published date: 2010

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 183077
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/183077
ISSN: 1862-4065
PURE UUID: 3f380949-0593-4d2d-8de4-7845a9856e08
ORCID for R. J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 28 Apr 2011 14:20
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:18

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Contributors

Author: E. McLeod
Author: J. Hinkel
Author: A.T. Vafeidis
Author: R. J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: N. Harvey
Author: R. Salm

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