NEOMiSS: A near-Earth object decision support tool

Norlund, C.C.F., Lewis, H.G., Atkinson, P.M. and Guo, J.Y. (2011) NEOMiSS: A near-Earth object decision support tool. IAA Planetary Defense Conference, Bucharest, Romania. 08 - 09 May 2011. 8 pp .

Abstract

The Near Earth Object Mitigation Support System (NEOMiSS) is a decision support tool, enabling scientists, emergency planners and policy-makers to understand and assess the human vulnerability and risks due to a potential NEO collision with the Earth. NEOMiSS extends the functionality offered by the NEOSim and NEOimpactor tools, developed at the University of Southampton. It provides an improved human casualty estimator using vulnerability models of multiple NEO impact hazards. In addition, it also offers an evacuation simulator for prediction of an areas ability to evacuate, which is used for modifying the human vulnerability. These tools enable NEOMiSS to deliver reliable predictions of the human casualties arising from impact hazards along a NEO risk corridor. As such, decisions affecting NEO deflection campaigns (which modify the risk corridor) can be taken in the context of the human consequences. In addition, NEOMiSS provides a mechanism for managing the uncertainties in the data and modelfitting, thereby enabling the confidence in risk assessments to be quantified. This paper presents the results of a preliminary study using the NEOMiSS multi-hazard human vulnerability model. Here, NEOMiSS is used to predict the number of casualties arising from the impact of asteroid 99942 Apophis along the 2036 risk corridor. The evacuation simulator was then used to understand the effects of two evacuation scenarios on the population in an area where a high number of casualties is likely. The case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of NEOMiSS whilst it is still undergoing development.

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Contributors

Author: H.G. Lewis

Author: P.M. Atkinson

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