Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings

Malik, Madhur and Thomas, Lyn C. (2012) Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings. [in special issue: Special Section 1: The Predictability of Financial Markets. Special Section 2: Credit Risk Modelling and Forecasting] International Journal of Forecasting, 28, (1), 261-272. (doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.01.007).


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Although the corporate credit risk literature has many studies modelling the change in the credit risk of corporate bonds over time, there is far less analysis of the credit risk for portfolios of consumer loans. However behavioural scores, which are commonly calculated on a monthly basis by most consumer lenders are the analogues of ratings in corporate credit risk. Motivated by studies in corporate credit risk, we develop a Markov chain model based on behavioural scores to establish the credit risk of portfolios of consumer loans. Although such models have been used by lenders to develop models for the Basel Accord, there is no published literature on them. The model we suggest differs in many respects from the corporate credit ones based on Markov chains – such as the need for a second order Markov chain, the inclusion of economic variables and the age of the loan. The model is applied using data on a credit card portfolio from a major UK bank.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.01.007
ISSNs: 0169-2070 (print)
Keywords: markov chain, credit risk, logistic regression, credit scoring
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Management
ePrint ID: 185275
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
January 2012Published
12 June 2011In press
Date Deposited: 18 Jan 2012 11:21
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 13:38

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