A case study of the applicability of a prediction model for the selection of patients undergoing in vitro fertilization for single embryo transfer in another center


Hunault, Claudine C., te Velde, Egbert R., Weima, Sjerp M., Macklon, Nicholas S., Eijkemans, Marinus J. C., Klinkert, Ellen R. and Habbema, J. Dik F. (2007) A case study of the applicability of a prediction model for the selection of patients undergoing in vitro fertilization for single embryo transfer in another center. Fertility and Sterility, 87, (6), 1314-1321. (doi:10.1016/j.fertnstert.2006.11.052). (PMID:17307175).

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Description/Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the application in a different fertility clinic of a prediction model for selecting IVF patients
for elective single embryo transfer.

Design: Retrospective analysis of a large database obtained from a tertiary infertility center.

Setting: University medical center.

Patient(s): The model, derived at the “development center” was applied in 494 consecutive first IVF cycles
carried out at the “application center.”

Intervention(s): After adjustment of embryo scoring system to be compatible with that used by the prediction
model, it was applied to the development center data. A score chart for predicting the probability of singleton or
twin pregnancy was constructed.

Main Outcome Measure(s): The area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) was determined to measure the
ability of the model to discriminate between ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy. Calibration plots were made
to assess agreement between predicted and observed pregnancy rates (PR).

Results: The areas under the ROC for predicting ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy were 0.63 and 0.66,
respectively. Insertion of a correction factor equivalent to the difference in odds ratios for ongoing PR between
the two centers was required to improve the calibration of the model.

Conclusion(s): After adaptation, the model performed well in the application center.

Item Type: Article
ISSNs: 0015-0282 (print)
1556-5653 (electronic)
Keywords: external validation, ivf, prediction model, elective single embryo transfer
Subjects: R Medicine > RG Gynecology and obstetrics
Divisions: University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Medicine > Developmental Origins of Health and Disease
ePrint ID: 185473
Date Deposited: 11 May 2011 09:24
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 19:40
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/185473

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