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Modelling past and present geographical distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica as a tool for exploring responses to environmental change

Modelling past and present geographical distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica as a tool for exploring responses to environmental change
Modelling past and present geographical distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica as a tool for exploring responses to environmental change
A climate envelope approach was used to model the distributions of the intertidal gastropod Patella rustica, to test the robustness of forecast responses to climate change. The model incorporated variables that were likely to determine the abundance and the northern range limit of this species in the NE Atlantic. The model was built using classification and regression tree analysis (CART) trained with historical distribution data from the mid 1950s and a set of corresponding climatic and oceanographic variables. Results indicated air and sea temperature, in particular during the reproductive and settlement periods, as the main determinants of the Atlantic distribution of P. rustica. The model was subsequently fed with contemporary climatic data and its output was compared with the current distribution and abundance of P. rustica, assessed during a 2002–2003 survey. The model correctly hindcasted the recent collapse of a distributional gap in northern Portugal, as well as an increase in abundance at locations within its range. The predicted northward expansion of the northern range limit did not occur because the absence of the species was confirmed in a survey encompassing the whole Atlantic French coast up to Brest. Stretches of unsuitable habitat too long to be overcome by dispersal are the likely mechanism controlling the northern limit of the distribution of this intertidal species.
]biogeography, classification and regression trees (CART), climate change, intertidal, marine gastropod, modelling, Patella rustica
1354-1013
2065-2077
Lima, Fernando P.
ae83d91a-1dfb-4d82-9e42-f1c6a628c2c9
Ribeiro, Pedro A.
e2b15cce-b31b-4a65-bdee-b3e36a2eb41c
Queiroz, Nuno
1b1b741e-a2ee-49c2-bbcc-2864044ba8e3
Xavier, Raquel
a46c4a4a-aa81-42a1-86e0-2a7536b5060b
Tarrroso, Pedro
71bbed8e-b351-4eb1-a14f-4cf3a5741680
Hawkins, Stephen J.
758fe1c1-30cd-4ed1-bb65-2471dc7c11fa
Santos, Antonio M.
0213868c-78a9-44bd-8c02-335693ba21dd
Lima, Fernando P.
ae83d91a-1dfb-4d82-9e42-f1c6a628c2c9
Ribeiro, Pedro A.
e2b15cce-b31b-4a65-bdee-b3e36a2eb41c
Queiroz, Nuno
1b1b741e-a2ee-49c2-bbcc-2864044ba8e3
Xavier, Raquel
a46c4a4a-aa81-42a1-86e0-2a7536b5060b
Tarrroso, Pedro
71bbed8e-b351-4eb1-a14f-4cf3a5741680
Hawkins, Stephen J.
758fe1c1-30cd-4ed1-bb65-2471dc7c11fa
Santos, Antonio M.
0213868c-78a9-44bd-8c02-335693ba21dd

Lima, Fernando P., Ribeiro, Pedro A., Queiroz, Nuno, Xavier, Raquel, Tarrroso, Pedro, Hawkins, Stephen J. and Santos, Antonio M. (2007) Modelling past and present geographical distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica as a tool for exploring responses to environmental change. Global Change Biology, 13 (10), 2065-2077. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01424.x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A climate envelope approach was used to model the distributions of the intertidal gastropod Patella rustica, to test the robustness of forecast responses to climate change. The model incorporated variables that were likely to determine the abundance and the northern range limit of this species in the NE Atlantic. The model was built using classification and regression tree analysis (CART) trained with historical distribution data from the mid 1950s and a set of corresponding climatic and oceanographic variables. Results indicated air and sea temperature, in particular during the reproductive and settlement periods, as the main determinants of the Atlantic distribution of P. rustica. The model was subsequently fed with contemporary climatic data and its output was compared with the current distribution and abundance of P. rustica, assessed during a 2002–2003 survey. The model correctly hindcasted the recent collapse of a distributional gap in northern Portugal, as well as an increase in abundance at locations within its range. The predicted northward expansion of the northern range limit did not occur because the absence of the species was confirmed in a survey encompassing the whole Atlantic French coast up to Brest. Stretches of unsuitable habitat too long to be overcome by dispersal are the likely mechanism controlling the northern limit of the distribution of this intertidal species.

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Published date: 2007
Keywords: ]biogeography, classification and regression trees (CART), climate change, intertidal, marine gastropod, modelling, Patella rustica

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 188033
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/188033
ISSN: 1354-1013
PURE UUID: 4c6e72b3-c075-4c52-bce8-ac08804c184e

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Date deposited: 19 May 2011 14:43
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 03:30

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Contributors

Author: Fernando P. Lima
Author: Pedro A. Ribeiro
Author: Nuno Queiroz
Author: Raquel Xavier
Author: Pedro Tarrroso
Author: Antonio M. Santos

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