Strategic jet engine system design in light of uncertain fuel and carbon prices
Strategic jet engine system design in light of uncertain fuel and carbon prices
This paper presents a project that is investigating which cruise speed the next generation of short-haul aircraft with 150 seats should fly at and which combination of advanced engine technologies should be employed in order to make the profit generated by the aircraft robust to uncertain fuel and carbon prices in Europe in 2030. To answer this question, an optimization loop is being set up in MATLAB consisting of five modules, including an aircraft design, a travel demand, a modal shift, a flight profile, and an engine design element. The first three modules were tested in a preliminary study that analyzed the effect of high and low fuel and carbon prices on the optimum aircraft design and its ideal cruise speed. The results indicate that if oil and CO2 prices were to rise significantly, a slower turboprop aircraft would be more profitable in terms of Surplus Value in comparison to a conventional turbofan design. If prices were to reduce, however, a faster turbofan aircraft would offer a superior business case. The study also showed that making realistic Surplus Value predictions is more difficult than forecasting costs.
Langmaak, Stephan
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Scanlan, James P.
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Wiseall, Stephen
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Sobester, Andras
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September 2011
Langmaak, Stephan
0be237c1-5f10-4645-99a3-fa274c3939c9
Scanlan, James P.
7ad738f2-d732-423f-a322-31fa4695529d
Wiseall, Stephen
485e9c02-2353-4c31-86a0-3ec41b0483ed
Sobester, Andras
096857b0-cad6-45ae-9ae6-e66b8cc5d81b
Langmaak, Stephan, Scanlan, James P., Wiseall, Stephen and Sobester, Andras
(2011)
Strategic jet engine system design in light of uncertain fuel and carbon prices.
11th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference, Virginia Beach, United States.
20 - 22 Sep 2011.
16 pp
.
Record type:
Conference or Workshop Item
(Paper)
Abstract
This paper presents a project that is investigating which cruise speed the next generation of short-haul aircraft with 150 seats should fly at and which combination of advanced engine technologies should be employed in order to make the profit generated by the aircraft robust to uncertain fuel and carbon prices in Europe in 2030. To answer this question, an optimization loop is being set up in MATLAB consisting of five modules, including an aircraft design, a travel demand, a modal shift, a flight profile, and an engine design element. The first three modules were tested in a preliminary study that analyzed the effect of high and low fuel and carbon prices on the optimum aircraft design and its ideal cruise speed. The results indicate that if oil and CO2 prices were to rise significantly, a slower turboprop aircraft would be more profitable in terms of Surplus Value in comparison to a conventional turbofan design. If prices were to reduce, however, a faster turbofan aircraft would offer a superior business case. The study also showed that making realistic Surplus Value predictions is more difficult than forecasting costs.
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Published date: September 2011
Venue - Dates:
11th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference, Virginia Beach, United States, 2011-09-20 - 2011-09-22
Organisations:
Computational Engineering & Design Group
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 196689
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/196689
PURE UUID: 1375803c-816c-4651-95f3-2eba9d3267be
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Date deposited: 13 Sep 2011 09:17
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:13
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Contributors
Author:
Stephan Langmaak
Author:
Stephen Wiseall
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