Strategic jet engine system design in light of uncertain fuel and carbon prices

Langmaak, Stephan, Scanlan, James P., Wiseall, Stephen and Sobester, Andras (2011) Strategic jet engine system design in light of uncertain fuel and carbon prices. In, 11th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference, Virginia Beach, US, 20 - 22 Sep 2011. 16pp.


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This paper presents a project that is investigating which cruise speed the next generation of short-haul aircraft with 150 seats should fly at and which combination of advanced engine technologies should be employed in order to make the profit generated by the aircraft robust to uncertain fuel and carbon prices in Europe in 2030. To answer this question, an optimization loop is being set up in MATLAB consisting of five modules, including an aircraft design, a travel demand, a modal shift, a flight profile, and an engine design element. The first three modules were tested in a preliminary study that analyzed the effect of high and low fuel and carbon prices on the optimum aircraft design and its ideal cruise speed. The results indicate that if oil and CO2 prices were to rise significantly, a slower turboprop aircraft would be more profitable in terms of Surplus Value in comparison to a conventional turbofan design. If prices were to reduce, however, a faster turbofan aircraft would offer a superior business case. The study also showed that making realistic Surplus Value predictions is more difficult than forecasting costs.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
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Subjects: T Technology > TL Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics
T Technology > TS Manufactures
Divisions : Faculty of Engineering and the Environment > Aeronautics, Astronautics and Computational Engineering > Computational Engineering & Design
ePrint ID: 196689
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
September 2011Delivered
Date Deposited: 13 Sep 2011 09:17
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 13:44

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