Abrupt climate change

Alley, R.B. and Marotze, J. (2003) Abrupt climate change. Science, 299, (5615), 2005-2010. (doi:10.1126/science.1081056).


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Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1126/science.1081056
ISSNs: 0036-8075 (print)
Related URLs:
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Ocean & Earth Science (SOC/SOES)
ePrint ID: 2004
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
Date Deposited: 07 May 2004
Last Modified: 06 Aug 2015 02:11
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/2004

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