A worldwide investigation of tuberculosis epidemics

Currie, Christine S.M. and Hoad, Kathryn A. (2011) A worldwide investigation of tuberculosis epidemics. Health Care Management Science, 15, (3), 223-238. (doi:10.1007/s10729-011-9182-7). (PMID:22083439).


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We analyse the tuberculosis (TB) epidemics of 211 countries with a view to proposing more efficient and targeted TB control strategies. Countries are classified by how their TB case notification rates have evolved over time and the age distribution of those suffering from active TB disease in 2008. Further analysis of key statistics associated with each of the countries shows the impact of different indicators. As expected, HIV is a key driver of TB epidemics and affects their age-distribution and their scale. The level of development of a country and its wealth also vary with the shape and scale of a country’s TB epidemic. Immigration has an influence on the shape of TB epidemics, which is particularly pronounced in highly developed countries with low levels of TB disease in the native population. We conclude by proposing how the TB control programme in each country analysed should prioritise its efforts.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1007/s10729-011-9182-7
ISSNs: 1386-9620 (print)
1572-9389 (electronic)
Keywords: health service, statistics, cluster analysis, resource management, tuberculosis
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Q Science > QA Mathematics
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions : Faculty of Social and Human Sciences > Mathematical Sciences > Operational Research
ePrint ID: 202595
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
25 October 2011In press
September 2012Published
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2012 10:06
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 13:46
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/202595

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