Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA

Hinkel, J, Brown, S., Exner, L, Nicholls, R.J., Vafeidis, A.T. and Kebede, Abiy (2011) Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. Regional Environmental Change. (doi:10.1007/s10113-011-0249-2).

Abstract

This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on
Africa at continental and national scales including the
benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures,
considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises
from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find
that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be
flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between
US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place.
Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the
form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding
and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion
reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of
magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following
such a protection strategy would require substantial
investment. First, Africa’s current adaptation deficit with
respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed.
DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion
is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In
addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs
to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and
socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that
protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but
may still be desirable when also taking into account the
avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires
further investigation including sub-national scale studies
that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the
development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation
options and strategies.

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Contributors

Author: S. Brown

Author: R.J. Nicholls

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