Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives


Gilsenan, M.B., Thompson, R.L., Lambe, J. and Gibney, M.J. (2003) Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives. Food Additives and Contaminants, 20, (suppl. 1), s61-s72. (doi:10.1080/0265203031000152451).

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Description/Abstract

The validity of a range of simple conceptual models designed specifically for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis was assessed. Modelled intake estimates that fell below traditional conservative point estimates of intake and above 'true' additive intakes (calculated from a reference database at brand level) were considered to be in a valid region. Models were developed for 10 food additives by combining food intake data, the probability of an additive being present in a food group and additive concentration data. Food intake and additive concentration data were entered as raw data or as a lognormal distribution, and the probability of an additive being present was entered based on the per cent brands or the per cent eating occasions within a food group that contained an additive. Since the three model components assumed two possible modes of input, the validity of eight (2^3) model combinations was assessed. All model inputs were derived from the reference database. An iterative approach was employed in which the validity of individual model components was assessed first, followed by validation of full conceptual models. While the distribution of intake estimates from models fell below conservative intakes, which assume that the additive is present at maximum permitted levels (MPLs) in all foods in which it is permitted, intake estimates were not consistently above 'true' intakes. These analyses indicate the need for more complex models for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis. Such models should incorporate information on market share and/or brand loyalty.

Item Type: Article
Related URLs:
Keywords: probabilistic modelling, food additives, model validation
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Medicine > Developmental Origins of Health and Disease
ePrint ID: 25536
Date Deposited: 07 Apr 2006
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 18:14
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/25536

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