Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK


Hendry, David F. and Mizon, Grayham E. (1998) Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK. Empirical Economics, 23, (3), 267-294. (doi:10.1007/BF01294408).

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Original Publication URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01294408

Description/Abstract

Since the objective of economic policy is to change target variables in the DGP, when economic policy analysis uses an econometric model, it is important that the model delivers reliable inferences about policy responses in the DGP. This requires that the model be congruent and encompassing, and hence exogeneity, causality, cointegration, co-breaking, and invariance all play major roles. We discuss these roles in linear cointegrated VARs, prior to illustrating their importance in a bivariate model of money and interest rates in the UK over the last century.

Item Type: Article
ISSNs: 0377-7332 (print)
Related URLs:
Keywords: exogeneity, causality, invariance, cointegration, co-breaking, impulse responses, money demand
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Economics
ePrint ID: 32882
Date Deposited: 25 Jul 2006
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 18:20
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/32882

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