Profits, risk and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets


Canova, Fabio and Marrinan, Jane (1993) Profits, risk and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, (2), 259-286. (doi:10.1016/0304-3932(93)90005-Z).

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Description/Abstract

This paper examines the properties of nominal profits from speculation in dollar-dominated forward contracts using a representative agent cash-in-advance model, modified to allow for heteroscedasticity in the exogenous processes. The model is simulated by estimating exogenous processes from the data and the remaining free parameters with a simulated method-of-moments technique. Simulated expected profits are variable, heteroskedastic, and serially correlated, but the magnitude of these second moments fall short of those of the predictable component of observed profits on the U.S. dollar. As in the actual data simulated forward rates display biasedness in predicting simulated future spot rates.

Item Type: Article
ISSNs: 0304-3932 (print)
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Economics
ePrint ID: 32939
Date Deposited: 11 Dec 2007
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 18:20
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/32939

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