Learning and asymmetric business cycles

Chalkley, M.C. and Lee, I.H. (1998) Learning and asymmetric business cycles. Review of Economic Dynamics, 1, (3), 623-645. (doi:10.1006/redy.1998.0024).


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Original Publication URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.1998.0024


It is known that a variety of economic time series exhibit asymmetry in the sense that the arrival of a recession is prompt, while the recovery from a recession appears protracted. This paper provides an explanation for the asymmetric movement of economic time series over business cycles by considering learning and information aggregation, given risk aversion on the part of economic agents. A model is constructed in which the underlying state of nature changes according to a symmetric first-order Markov process. Risk-averse agents make capital utilization choices which partially reveal their private information on the underlying state of nature. Risk aversion prevents them from acting promptly on receiving good news, while it encourages them to act quickly on receiving bad news. When this cautious response at the individual level is combined with aggregate noise, an economy-wide asymmetric time series is generated. A numerical simulation is carried out to derive the empirical distribution of movements of such a time series.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: D83, E32, E37.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1006/redy.1998.0024
Additional Information: Regular Article
ISSNs: 1094-2025 (print)
Related URLs:
Keywords: business cycles, learning, asymmetry
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Economics
ePrint ID: 32987
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2007
Last Modified: 06 Aug 2015 02:30
Economic fluctuation and information aggregation
Funded by: ESRC National Centre for Research Methods (H52427002794)
1 September 1994 to 30 August 1998
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/32987

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