From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election
Fisher, Stephen D., Ford, Robert, Jennings, Will, Pickup, Mark and Wlezien, Christopher (2011) From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election. [in special issue: Special Symposium: Electoral Forecasting Symposium] Electoral Studies, 30, (2), 250-257. (doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005).
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Description/Abstract
This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| ISSNs: | 0261-3794 (print) 1873-6890 (electronic) |
| Keywords: | british elections, forecasting elections, opinion polls, state-space model, house effects |
| Subjects: | J Political Science > JA Political science (General) J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social and Human Sciences > Social Sciences > Politics & International Relations |
| Item ID: | 336581 |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Mar 2012 09:06 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Jul 2012 13:15 |
| Contributors: | Fisher, Stephen D. (Author) Ford, Robert (Author) Jennings, Will (Author) Pickup, Mark (Author) Wlezien, Christopher (Author) |
| Date: | June 2011 |
| Status: | Published |
| URI: | http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/336581 |
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