From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election
Fisher, Stephen D., Ford, Robert, Jennings, Will, Pickup, Mark and Wlezien, Christopher (2011) From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election. [in special issue: Special Symposium: Electoral Forecasting Symposium] Electoral Studies, 30, (2), 250-257. (doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005).
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This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005|
|Keywords:||british elections, forecasting elections, opinion polls, state-space model, house effects|
|Subjects:||J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Q Science > QA Mathematics
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social and Human Sciences > Social Sciences > Politics & International Relations
|Date Deposited:||30 Mar 2012 09:06|
|Last Modified:||27 Mar 2014 20:20|
|RDF:||RDF+N-Triples, RDF+N3, RDF+XML, Browse.|
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