Modelling human travel patterns to evaluate intervention strategies for mosquito-borne disease

Brailsford, S.C., Mecoli, M. and De Angelis, V. (2012) Modelling human travel patterns to evaluate intervention strategies for mosquito-borne disease. Computers and Operations Research, 40, 2219-2218. (doi:10.1016/j.cor.2012.03.007).


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The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies for diseases transmitted by the Aedes albopictus mosquito (the “Asian tiger”) and spread by human travel. This mosquito, which has become established in southern Europe in recent years, is a vector for many diseases. For example, an outbreak of chikungunya, hitherto regarded as a tropical disease, occurred in Italy in 2007. The initial case was a person who had acquired the disease overseas. Mosquito-borne infections can only be spread over large distances by human travel, as the flight range of mosquitos is very limited. A system dynamics model has been developed which describes the mosquito life-cycle, the natural history of mosquito-borne disease in humans and mosquitos, and human behaviour including travel. Potential disease control strategies include chemical treatments to destroy either larvae or adult mosquitos, campaigns to influence human behaviour, or quarantine of infectious people. In this paper, which is based on the Italian chikungunya outbreak, this model is used to study and compare the effect of different control strategies, where the various actions are combined in different ways and implemented for different time periods

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1016/j.cor.2012.03.007
ISSNs: 0305-0548
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions : Faculty of Business and Law > Southampton Business School
ePrint ID: 336810
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
March 2012In press
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2012 10:50
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 14:25

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