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Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes
Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes
Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components.
The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the
first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models
allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.
benthos, fish, NE Atlantic, North Sea, phytoplankton, regime shifts, rocky shores, seals, state-space model, time series, zooplankton
1354-1013
1270-1281
Spencer, Matthew
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Mieszkowska, Nova
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Robinson, Leonie A.
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Simpson, Stephen D.
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Burrows, Micheal T.
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Birchenough, Silvana N.
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Capasso, Eva
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Cleall-Harding, Polly
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Crummy, Julia
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Duck, Callan
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Eloire, Damien
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Frost, Matthew
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Hall, Ailsa J.
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Hawkins, Stephen J.
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Johns, David G.
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Sims, David W.
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Smyth, Timothy J.
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Frid, Chris L.J.
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Spencer, Matthew
b609fed6-8c19-467f-adb3-34040c959ca2
Mieszkowska, Nova
0024e8e8-9da9-49c5-ab13-31cd672cddc5
Robinson, Leonie A.
3f925dd1-63e3-482c-a6af-fa260899cea6
Simpson, Stephen D.
84cad0c4-c91b-4419-af80-ebc361dc4d16
Burrows, Micheal T.
9c02335e-0850-4a41-ae5d-3d24d446cf7a
Birchenough, Silvana N.
e02fd12a-1082-4664-825d-45af6b6b36bf
Capasso, Eva
cfe8ac77-b854-4848-b932-a0fc09ba895a
Cleall-Harding, Polly
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Crummy, Julia
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Duck, Callan
2218f030-7992-402c-ae88-e2c830e85956
Eloire, Damien
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Frost, Matthew
590a8783-51e1-40fa-9138-bfa1fd7bcb8d
Hall, Ailsa J.
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Hawkins, Stephen J.
758fe1c1-30cd-4ed1-bb65-2471dc7c11fa
Johns, David G.
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Sims, David W.
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Smyth, Timothy J.
d7850910-0bd6-43dc-acd4-ab5e7aae0f88
Frid, Chris L.J.
d1018e11-7f0a-472f-a1b0-616ce8d462b3

Spencer, Matthew, Mieszkowska, Nova, Robinson, Leonie A., Simpson, Stephen D., Burrows, Micheal T., Birchenough, Silvana N., Capasso, Eva, Cleall-Harding, Polly, Crummy, Julia, Duck, Callan, Eloire, Damien, Frost, Matthew, Hall, Ailsa J., Hawkins, Stephen J., Johns, David G., Sims, David W., Smyth, Timothy J. and Frid, Chris L.J. (2012) Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes. Global Change Biology, 18, 1270-1281. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02620.x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components.
The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the
first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models
allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

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Published date: 2012
Keywords: benthos, fish, NE Atlantic, North Sea, phytoplankton, regime shifts, rocky shores, seals, state-space model, time series, zooplankton
Organisations: Ocean Biochemistry & Ecosystems

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 337002
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/337002
ISSN: 1354-1013
PURE UUID: b1a2343a-614d-4f86-9b49-0aedb485e1c4

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Date deposited: 13 Apr 2012 10:51
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 10:49

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Contributors

Author: Matthew Spencer
Author: Nova Mieszkowska
Author: Leonie A. Robinson
Author: Stephen D. Simpson
Author: Micheal T. Burrows
Author: Silvana N. Birchenough
Author: Eva Capasso
Author: Polly Cleall-Harding
Author: Julia Crummy
Author: Callan Duck
Author: Damien Eloire
Author: Matthew Frost
Author: Ailsa J. Hall
Author: David G. Johns
Author: David W. Sims
Author: Timothy J. Smyth
Author: Chris L.J. Frid

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