The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen year population-based cohort study
Leyland, K.M., Hart, D., Javaid, M.K., Judge, A., Kiran, A., Soni, A., Goulston, L.M., Cooper, C., Spector, T.D. and Arden, N.K. (2012) The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen year population-based cohort study. Arthritis & Rheumatism (doi:10.1002/art.34415). (PMID:22422507).
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Description/Abstract
Objective: The purpose of this study was to establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (ROA) over fourteen years in a community-based cohort.
Methods: We examined women from the Chingford study, a community based cohort followed for over 14 years. We selected those women with bilateral, fully-extended radiographs taken at approximately five year intervals. Radiographs were scored for OA using Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L) grades blinded to order and patient identity. Descriptive statistics and odds ratios were used to compare incidence (K&L ≥ 2 from grade 0/1), worsening (≥ 1 increase in grade) and progression (≥ 1 increase in grade from a 2) of ROA.
Results: A complete radiographic series was available on 56% (561) of the original 1003 subjects enrolled in the study, who had a median baseline age of 53 (Interquartile Range 48, 58). 13.7% of subjects had prevalent ROA (K&L ≥ 2) in at least one knee at baseline, which increased to 47.8% by year 15. Annual cumulative incidence, progression and worsening were 2.3%, 2.8%, and 3.0%, respectively. Baseline grade 1′s were more likely to worsen than any other baseline grade (Odds Ratio 6.6, 95% Confidence Interval (3.6, 12.7)) by year 15.
Conclusion: We report the longest natural history study of radiographic knee OA to date. Our data identified relatively low rates of incidence and progression; almost half of all subjects remained free from any radiographic evidence of ROA for fifteen years; and a baseline grade 1 was more likely to worsen than any other baseline grade.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| ISSNs: | 0004-3591 (print) 1529-0131 (electronic) |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QM Human anatomy Q Science > QP Physiology R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Health Sciences |
| Item ID: | 339137 |
| Date Deposited: | 23 May 2012 13:13 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Jul 2012 00:46 |
| Contributors: | Leyland, K.M. (Author) Hart, D. (Author) Javaid, M.K. (Author) Judge, A. (Author) Kiran, A. (Author) Soni, A. (Author) Goulston, L.M. (Author) Cooper, C. (Author) Spector, T.D. (Author) Arden, N.K. (Author) |
| Date: | 2012 |
| Status: | Published |
| URI: | http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/339137 |
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