Ultra High Frequency Algorithmic Arbitrage Across International Index Futures

Alsayed, Hamad and McGroarty, Frank (2014) Ultra High Frequency Algorithmic Arbitrage Across International Index Futures. Journal of Forecasting


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We show that persistent lead-lag relationships spanning mere fractions of a seccond exist in all three possible pairings of the S&P500, FTSE100, and DAX futures contracts. These relationships exhibit clear intraday patterns which help us to forecast mid-quote changes in lagging contracts with directional accuracy in excess of 85%. A simple algorithmic trading strategy exploiting these relations yields economically significant profits which are robust to market impact costs and the bid-ask spread. We find that price slippage and infrastructure costs are our most important limits to arbitrage. Our results support the Grossman and Stiglitz (1976, 1980) view that informational ine?fficiencies incentivize arbitrageurs to eliminate mispricings.

Item Type: Article
ISSNs: 0277-6693 (print)
1099-131X (electronic)
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions : Faculty of Business and Law > Southampton Business School > Centre for Digital, Interactive & Data Driven Marketing
ePrint ID: 341452
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
22 February 2014In press
Date Deposited: 25 Jul 2012 11:48
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 14:32
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/341452

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