Hull, Matthew and McGroarty, Frank
Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices.
Emerging Markets Review
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It seems reasonable to expect that more developed financial markets would be more efficient than less developed ones. We evaluate market efficiency over a 16 year sample, covering 22 countries. Further, we classify these countries into ‘advanced’ and ‘secondary’. We employ the Hurst-Mandelbrot-Wallis Rescaled-Range as our efficiency measure, which we apply to price levels and to return volatility. We find strong evidence of long memory persistence in volatility, which is unsurprising. However, in contrast to previous researchers, we found no evidence of increased price efficiency over time, while the greater efficiency observed in ‘advanced’ vs. ‘secondary’ emerging markets is marginal.
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