The Average Earnings Index

Chambers, Ray, Weale, Martin and Youll, Robin (2000) The Average Earnings Index. The Economic Journal, 110, (461), 100-121. (doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00509).


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Survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of offcial data. This paper proposes an indicator based on a theoretically consistent procedure or quantifying firm-level survey responses that are ordered and categorical. Firms' survey responses are assumed to be triggered by a latent continuous random variable as it crosses thresholds.

Breaking tradition these thresholds are not assumed time invariant. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator of manufacturing output growth outperforms traditional indicators that assume timeinvariant thresholds.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00509
ISSNs: 0013-0133 (print)
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Social Statistics
ePrint ID: 34165
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
Date Deposited: 26 Jul 2006
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 12:01

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