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Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: A GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling

Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: A GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling
Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: A GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling
We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalised these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on ‘business as usual’ with continued forest–woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services
0301-4797
563-574
Swetnam, R.D.
575115d5-edbf-4c99-976f-4b9c8e645ccc
Fisher, B.
40745fe1-ab23-4e82-b42d-0abf8cad0051
Mbilinyi, B.P.
f5ecbb4d-3171-4a4d-a72b-44aff8e46cbe
Munishi, P.K.T.
d3454293-a771-4431-ba01-c5581195753e
Willcock, S.
89d9767e-8076-4b21-be9d-a964f5cc85d7
Ricketts, T.
ed222990-c447-4943-9e5b-cc41552ec1a9
Mwakalila, S.
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Balmford, A.
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Burgess, N.D.
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Marshall, A.R.
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Lewis, S.L.
70048d3b-f6e0-4292-b08f-8eab49be2c43
Swetnam, R.D.
575115d5-edbf-4c99-976f-4b9c8e645ccc
Fisher, B.
40745fe1-ab23-4e82-b42d-0abf8cad0051
Mbilinyi, B.P.
f5ecbb4d-3171-4a4d-a72b-44aff8e46cbe
Munishi, P.K.T.
d3454293-a771-4431-ba01-c5581195753e
Willcock, S.
89d9767e-8076-4b21-be9d-a964f5cc85d7
Ricketts, T.
ed222990-c447-4943-9e5b-cc41552ec1a9
Mwakalila, S.
3182003b-47c9-4ce3-afb9-482796138998
Balmford, A.
f60edef7-9dd0-4197-ae4b-8e8dbf3a04c1
Burgess, N.D.
b2b69816-6b1b-48da-8402-3b6acd5d9cac
Marshall, A.R.
0b018ca5-76e5-48d2-abd5-5c741dae6e41
Lewis, S.L.
70048d3b-f6e0-4292-b08f-8eab49be2c43

Swetnam, R.D., Fisher, B., Mbilinyi, B.P., Munishi, P.K.T., Willcock, S., Ricketts, T., Mwakalila, S., Balmford, A., Burgess, N.D., Marshall, A.R. and Lewis, S.L. (2011) Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: A GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling. Journal of Environmental Management, 92 (3), 563-574. (doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.09.007). (PMID:20932636)

Record type: Article

Abstract

We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalised these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on ‘business as usual’ with continued forest–woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services

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Published date: March 2011
Organisations: Environmental

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Local EPrints ID: 342527
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/342527
ISSN: 0301-4797
PURE UUID: 89128de3-7e6d-417a-8a84-ed55539e572d

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Date deposited: 05 Sep 2012 13:01
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 11:53

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Contributors

Author: R.D. Swetnam
Author: B. Fisher
Author: B.P. Mbilinyi
Author: P.K.T. Munishi
Author: S. Willcock
Author: T. Ricketts
Author: S. Mwakalila
Author: A. Balmford
Author: N.D. Burgess
Author: A.R. Marshall
Author: S.L. Lewis

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