Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar


Le Menach, A., Tatem, A.J., Cohen, J.M., Hay, S.I., Randell, H., Patil, A.P. and Smith, D.L. (2011) Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar. Scientific Reports, 1, 93. (doi:10.1038/srep00093). (PMID:22355611).

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Description/Abstract

The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zanzibar has reached historic lows. Improving control requires quantifying malaria importation rates, identifying high-risk travelers, and assessing onwards transmission.Estimates of Zanzibar's importation rate were calculated through two independent methodologies. First, mobile phone usage data and ferry traffic between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania were re-analyzed using a model of heterogeneous travel risk. Second, a dynamic mathematical model of importation and transmission rates was used.Zanzibar residents traveling to malaria endemic regions were estimated to contribute 1-15 times more imported cases than infected visitors. The malaria importation rate was estimated to be 1.6 incoming infections per 1,000 inhabitants per year. Local transmission was estimated too low to sustain transmission in most places.Malaria infections in Zanzibar largely result from imported malaria and subsequent transmission. Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination appears feasible by implementing control measures based on detecting imported malaria cases and controlling onward transmission.

Item Type: Article
ISSNs: 2045-2322 (electronic)
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Social and Human Sciences > Geography and Environment
ePrint ID: 344429
Date Deposited: 05 Nov 2012 14:19
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 20:26
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344429

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