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Which method predicts recidivism best?: A comparison of statistical, machine learning, and data mining predictive models

Which method predicts recidivism best?: A comparison of statistical, machine learning, and data mining predictive models
Which method predicts recidivism best?: A comparison of statistical, machine learning, and data mining predictive models
Using criminal population conviction histories of recent offenders, prediction mod els are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discrim inant analysis. These models are compared on a large selection of performance measures. Results indicate that classical methods do equally well as or better than their modern counterparts. The predictive performance of the various techniques differs only slightly for general and violent recidivism, whereas differences are larger for sexual recidivism. For the general and violent recidivism data we present the results of logistic regression and for sexual recidivism of linear discriminant analysis.
0035-9254
565-584
Tollenaar, N.
118ec671-6837-4547-a09c-55db75a36d27
van der Heijden, P.G.M.
85157917-3b33-4683-81be-713f987fd612
Tollenaar, N.
118ec671-6837-4547-a09c-55db75a36d27
van der Heijden, P.G.M.
85157917-3b33-4683-81be-713f987fd612

Tollenaar, N. and van der Heijden, P.G.M. (2012) Which method predicts recidivism best?: A comparison of statistical, machine learning, and data mining predictive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), 176 (2), 565-584. (doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2012.01056.x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Using criminal population conviction histories of recent offenders, prediction mod els are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discrim inant analysis. These models are compared on a large selection of performance measures. Results indicate that classical methods do equally well as or better than their modern counterparts. The predictive performance of the various techniques differs only slightly for general and violent recidivism, whereas differences are larger for sexual recidivism. For the general and violent recidivism data we present the results of logistic regression and for sexual recidivism of linear discriminant analysis.

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Published date: 1 November 2012
Organisations: Sociology, Social Policy & Criminology

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 344632
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344632
ISSN: 0035-9254
PURE UUID: 561150cd-98fb-4ca9-b0d5-15a1a1fef0f6
ORCID for P.G.M. van der Heijden: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3345-096X

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Date deposited: 07 Nov 2012 14:51
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:46

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Author: N. Tollenaar

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