The University of Southampton
×
Filter your search:
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K?W?1?m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8?K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.
climate science, earth sciences
0028-0836
683-691
Rohling, E.J.
a2a27ef2-fcce-4c71-907b-e692b5ecc685
Sluijs, A.
4f68782c-15c3-4d42-ae22-8ffb13887dc6
Dijkstra, H.A.
5c87a968-5c42-4714-ba6a-bf337031dea1
Köhler, P.
cf78e682-0853-4594-89d6-f9ce5afc041d
van de Wal, R.S.W.
541169da-bfec-4510-943c-bb114d9d7481
von der Heydt, A.S.
bc19bbcf-1f79-4a0c-aae4-110a9196df30
Beerling, D.J.
6d24279e-d220-4813-b650-463ed54ffabb
Berger, A.
4c40c340-bd0b-4ec6-af1e-fd8326110cca
Bijl, P.K.
121c4b68-94b0-4186-a0bb-730167bd26d6
Crucifix, M.
12be08bf-fbeb-4657-abf2-09d55a18bd2f
DeConto, R.
892a0cf3-ef2a-46af-9c09-0e283b7222d7
Drijfhout, S.S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Fedorov, A.
1a16ad13-8a96-4cbf-9036-a42de00180ee
Foster, G.L.
fbaa7255-7267-4443-a55e-e2a791213022
Ganopolski, A.
cbaa7875-b285-420d-8515-8410dc2a0053
Hansen, J.
f65768a1-6912-4b25-9b7c-62af16dac305
Hönisch, B.
c13fb955-7df7-49cb-9fff-e6a3b86ad9a0
Hooghiemstra, H.
c0a313f6-b284-4714-8dcb-eaa56c05c66c
Huber, M.
f86c1008-e7d4-4b48-bfcf-347951cfdde4
Huybers, P.
35d57f88-a2fb-4c54-915f-34885481504d
Knutti, R.
fb3fdb6b-8d2d-4849-a971-85db4e0ae856
Lea, D.W.
ad8e2b34-2918-4308-8019-889f008bb96e
Lourens, L.J.
61c02597-1860-45e5-9b78-a1473c7c86dd
Lunt, D.
80f2936b-cf35-4af5-9c87-973d95ad53f9
Masson-Demotte, V.
3d7a4bd4-f7e2-4790-b973-83265ccb9e64
Medina-Elizalde, M.
e3c33ced-06eb-463b-9835-1f6397213c2f
Otto-Bliesner, B.
65274d5a-3184-48c7-a3c0-e5ee49d5539d
Pagani, M.
577ac082-4db7-4f85-8213-c45df17acd01
Pälike, H.
b9bf7798-ad8c-479b-8487-dd9a30a61fa5
Renssen, H.
d8f782ba-f1b5-4598-80a1-7cbcab985397
Royer, D.L.
cef3f568-42db-43f9-9f2d-a9aefc862586
Siddall, M.
9c045dd5-498b-488b-9c67-23e24d90ebcc
Valdes, P.
0346ffb7-d0db-482a-a6a8-f82fe5e02c89
Zachos, J.C.
2b8451ab-989c-4519-ad8f-208df1fba6eb
Zeebe, R.E.
1517c70d-d5ab-4b06-89f9-f8167630e5e8
Rohling, E.J.
a2a27ef2-fcce-4c71-907b-e692b5ecc685
Sluijs, A.
4f68782c-15c3-4d42-ae22-8ffb13887dc6
Dijkstra, H.A.
5c87a968-5c42-4714-ba6a-bf337031dea1
Köhler, P.
cf78e682-0853-4594-89d6-f9ce5afc041d
van de Wal, R.S.W.
541169da-bfec-4510-943c-bb114d9d7481
von der Heydt, A.S.
bc19bbcf-1f79-4a0c-aae4-110a9196df30
Beerling, D.J.
6d24279e-d220-4813-b650-463ed54ffabb
Berger, A.
4c40c340-bd0b-4ec6-af1e-fd8326110cca
Bijl, P.K.
121c4b68-94b0-4186-a0bb-730167bd26d6
Crucifix, M.
12be08bf-fbeb-4657-abf2-09d55a18bd2f
DeConto, R.
892a0cf3-ef2a-46af-9c09-0e283b7222d7
Drijfhout, S.S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Fedorov, A.
1a16ad13-8a96-4cbf-9036-a42de00180ee
Foster, G.L.
fbaa7255-7267-4443-a55e-e2a791213022
Ganopolski, A.
cbaa7875-b285-420d-8515-8410dc2a0053
Hansen, J.
f65768a1-6912-4b25-9b7c-62af16dac305
Hönisch, B.
c13fb955-7df7-49cb-9fff-e6a3b86ad9a0
Hooghiemstra, H.
c0a313f6-b284-4714-8dcb-eaa56c05c66c
Huber, M.
f86c1008-e7d4-4b48-bfcf-347951cfdde4
Huybers, P.
35d57f88-a2fb-4c54-915f-34885481504d
Knutti, R.
fb3fdb6b-8d2d-4849-a971-85db4e0ae856
Lea, D.W.
ad8e2b34-2918-4308-8019-889f008bb96e
Lourens, L.J.
61c02597-1860-45e5-9b78-a1473c7c86dd
Lunt, D.
80f2936b-cf35-4af5-9c87-973d95ad53f9
Masson-Demotte, V.
3d7a4bd4-f7e2-4790-b973-83265ccb9e64
Medina-Elizalde, M.
e3c33ced-06eb-463b-9835-1f6397213c2f
Otto-Bliesner, B.
65274d5a-3184-48c7-a3c0-e5ee49d5539d
Pagani, M.
577ac082-4db7-4f85-8213-c45df17acd01
Pälike, H.
b9bf7798-ad8c-479b-8487-dd9a30a61fa5
Renssen, H.
d8f782ba-f1b5-4598-80a1-7cbcab985397
Royer, D.L.
cef3f568-42db-43f9-9f2d-a9aefc862586
Siddall, M.
9c045dd5-498b-488b-9c67-23e24d90ebcc
Valdes, P.
0346ffb7-d0db-482a-a6a8-f82fe5e02c89
Zachos, J.C.
2b8451ab-989c-4519-ad8f-208df1fba6eb
Zeebe, R.E.
1517c70d-d5ab-4b06-89f9-f8167630e5e8

Rohling, E.J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H.A., Köhler, P., van de Wal, R.S.W., von der Heydt, A.S., Beerling, D.J., Berger, A., Bijl, P.K., Crucifix, M., DeConto, R., Drijfhout, S.S., Fedorov, A., Foster, G.L., Ganopolski, A., Hansen, J., Hönisch, B., Hooghiemstra, H., Huber, M., Huybers, P., Knutti, R., Lea, D.W., Lourens, L.J., Lunt, D., Masson-Demotte, V., Medina-Elizalde, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pagani, M., Pälike, H., Renssen, H., Royer, D.L., Siddall, M., Valdes, P., Zachos, J.C. and Zeebe, R.E. (2012) Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491 (7426), 683-691. (doi:10.1038/nature11574).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K?W?1?m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8?K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 28 November 2012
Published date: 29 November 2012
Keywords: climate science, earth sciences
Organisations: Geochemistry, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 346721
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/346721
DOI: doi:10.1038/nature11574
ISSN: 0028-0836
PURE UUID: 78a0d469-7c2b-41e8-b45a-398070cdd802
ORCID for E.J. Rohling: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5349-2158
ORCID for S.S. Drijfhout: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5325-7350
ORCID for G.L. Foster: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3688-9668

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 08 Jan 2013 10:21
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:44

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: E.J. Rohling ORCID iD
Author: A. Sluijs
Author: H.A. Dijkstra
Author: P. Köhler
Author: R.S.W. van de Wal
Author: A.S. von der Heydt
Author: D.J. Beerling
Author: A. Berger
Author: P.K. Bijl
Author: M. Crucifix
Author: R. DeConto
Author: S.S. Drijfhout ORCID iD
Author: A. Fedorov
Author: G.L. Foster ORCID iD
Author: A. Ganopolski
Author: J. Hansen
Author: B. Hönisch
Author: H. Hooghiemstra
Author: M. Huber
Author: P. Huybers
Author: R. Knutti
Author: D.W. Lea
Author: L.J. Lourens
Author: D. Lunt
Author: V. Masson-Demotte
Author: M. Medina-Elizalde
Author: B. Otto-Bliesner
Author: M. Pagani
Author: H. Pälike
Author: H. Renssen
Author: D.L. Royer
Author: M. Siddall
Author: P. Valdes
Author: J.C. Zachos
Author: R.E. Zeebe

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Library staff additional information
Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×