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Multiyear predictability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Multiyear predictability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Multiyear predictability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
In decadal predictability studies, the subpolar Atlantic stands out as a region of high potential and real predictability. Since local temperature and salinity variations in the region are for a large part controlled by ocean dynamics, skillful predictability of the local ocean dynamics is a prerequisite to obtain multiyear predictability of other variables such as sea surface temperature. In this study, we discuss the predictability of the main ocean current system in the region, the subpolar gyre. From perfect model hindcasts exploiting initial condition information only from realistic ocean observation locations, we find that predictability is increased when Argo subsurface data are included. In our real-world experiments with initialized hindcasts, the observed decline in subpolar gyre strength of the mid-1990s is reproduced well and we find predictability of the subpolar gyre up to 2 years ahead, comparable to the skill of a damped persistence model.
idecadal predictability, ocean dynamics, subpolar gyre, climate model
0094-8276
3080-3084
Wouters, B.
05ac65e0-35f5-43ae-8e80-a6ff13c1c2ef
Hazeleger, W.
0bd826a1-4713-43ab-aace-3ea59d2fc37e
Drijfhout, S.S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
van Oldenborgh, G.J.
bfed2684-7bc6-4711-b0a1-6953fd1090cb
Guemas, V.
977bd5e5-b47f-4c6f-88fb-ec2b7f345fc0
Wouters, B.
05ac65e0-35f5-43ae-8e80-a6ff13c1c2ef
Hazeleger, W.
0bd826a1-4713-43ab-aace-3ea59d2fc37e
Drijfhout, S.S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
van Oldenborgh, G.J.
bfed2684-7bc6-4711-b0a1-6953fd1090cb
Guemas, V.
977bd5e5-b47f-4c6f-88fb-ec2b7f345fc0

Wouters, B., Hazeleger, W., Drijfhout, S.S., van Oldenborgh, G.J. and Guemas, V. (2013) Multiyear predictability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (12), 3080-3084. (doi:10.1002/grl.50585).

Record type: Article

Abstract

In decadal predictability studies, the subpolar Atlantic stands out as a region of high potential and real predictability. Since local temperature and salinity variations in the region are for a large part controlled by ocean dynamics, skillful predictability of the local ocean dynamics is a prerequisite to obtain multiyear predictability of other variables such as sea surface temperature. In this study, we discuss the predictability of the main ocean current system in the region, the subpolar gyre. From perfect model hindcasts exploiting initial condition information only from realistic ocean observation locations, we find that predictability is increased when Argo subsurface data are included. In our real-world experiments with initialized hindcasts, the observed decline in subpolar gyre strength of the mid-1990s is reproduced well and we find predictability of the subpolar gyre up to 2 years ahead, comparable to the skill of a damped persistence model.

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More information

Published date: 28 June 2013
Keywords: idecadal predictability, ocean dynamics, subpolar gyre, climate model
Organisations: Physical Oceanography

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 352601
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/352601
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: 338cab03-8029-4f8a-b940-cafd71e266a0
ORCID for S.S. Drijfhout: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5325-7350

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 15 May 2013 15:26
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:44

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Contributors

Author: B. Wouters
Author: W. Hazeleger
Author: S.S. Drijfhout ORCID iD
Author: G.J. van Oldenborgh
Author: V. Guemas

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