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The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation
The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation
Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions.
Warren, R.
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Lowe, J.A.
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Arnell, N.W.
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Hope, C.
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Berry, P.
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Brown, S.
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Gambhir, A.
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Gosling, S.N.
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Nicholls, R.J.
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O’Hanley, J.
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Osborn, T.J.
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Osborne, T.
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Price, J.
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Raper, S.C.B.
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Rose, G.
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Vanderwal, J.
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Warren, R.
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Lowe, J.A.
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Arnell, N.W.
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Hope, C.
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Berry, P.
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Brown, S.
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Gambhir, A.
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Gosling, S.N.
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Nicholls, R.J.
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O’Hanley, J.
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Osborn, T.J.
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Osborne, T.
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Price, J.
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Raper, S.C.B.
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Rose, G.
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Vanderwal, J.
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Warren, R., Lowe, J.A., Arnell, N.W., Hope, C., Berry, P., Brown, S., Gambhir, A., Gosling, S.N., Nicholls, R.J., O’Hanley, J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T., Price, J., Raper, S.C.B., Rose, G. and Vanderwal, J. (2013) The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation. Climatic Change. (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions.

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More information

Published date: 19 July 2013
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 355175
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/355175
PURE UUID: 30050e2c-fff3-4eb2-813a-180ac11c66f8
ORCID for S. Brown: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-1185-1962
ORCID for R.J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 13 Aug 2013 13:17
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:31

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Contributors

Author: R. Warren
Author: J.A. Lowe
Author: N.W. Arnell
Author: C. Hope
Author: P. Berry
Author: S. Brown ORCID iD
Author: A. Gambhir
Author: S.N. Gosling
Author: R.J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: J. O’Hanley
Author: T.J. Osborn
Author: T. Osborne
Author: J. Price
Author: S.C.B. Raper
Author: G. Rose
Author: J. Vanderwal

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