Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races


Johnson, J.E.V. and Bruce, A.C. (1993) Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races. Psychological Reports, 72, (2), 1251-1258.

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Description/Abstract

The central premise of «Gluck's Second Law,» which states that «The Best Time to Bet the Favourite is in the Last Race,» is tested. Analysis of a random sample of 1212 bets placed in offcourse betting offices throughout the UK shows that bettors on later races back horses with shorter odds; commit, to some extent, higher stakes and perform at least as well as bettors on early races. The premise underlying «Gluck's Second Law» that bettors back long-shots in later races is questioned in relation to the UK offcourse betting market. Suggestions are offered for these results and avenues for further research are identified.

Item Type: Article
ISSNs: 0033-2941 (print)
Related URLs:
Keywords: gamble, play, silver, United Kingdom, human, Europe
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic
B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions: University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Management
ePrint ID: 35774
Date Deposited: 15 Mar 2007
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 18:22
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/35774

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