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A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: sensitivity to initial uncertainties

A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: sensitivity to initial uncertainties
A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: sensitivity to initial uncertainties
A high order method to quickly assess the effect that uncertainties produce on orbital conjunctions through a numerical high-fidelity propagator is presented. In particular, the dependency of time and distance of closest approach to initial uncertainties on position and velocity of both objects involved in a conjunction is studied. The approach relies on a numerical integration based on differential algebraic techniques and a high-order algorithm that expands the time and distance of closest approach in Taylor series with respect to relevant uncertainties. The modeled perturbations are atmospheric drag, using NRLMSISE-00 air density model, solar radiation pressure with shadow, third body perturbation using JPL’s DE405 ephemeris, and EGM2008 gravity model. The polynomial approximation of the final position is used as an input to compute analytically the expansion of time and distance of closest approach. As a result, the analysis of a close encounter can be performed through fast, multiple evaluations of Taylor polynomials. Test cases with objects ranging from LEO to GEO regimes are considered to assess the performances and the accuracy of the proposed method.
space debris, conjunction analysis, differential algebra
0273-1177
490-508
Morselli, Alessandro
d60a83ab-e0f6-43f5-b2fe-b03b940f7956
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
Di Lizia, Pierluigi
f86916ba-a73b-42a9-8247-558335c21f22
Bernelli Zazzera, Franco
c53a77a8-59c4-4b56-b990-494a6964626a
Morselli, Alessandro
d60a83ab-e0f6-43f5-b2fe-b03b940f7956
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
Di Lizia, Pierluigi
f86916ba-a73b-42a9-8247-558335c21f22
Bernelli Zazzera, Franco
c53a77a8-59c4-4b56-b990-494a6964626a

Morselli, Alessandro, Armellin, Roberto, Di Lizia, Pierluigi and Bernelli Zazzera, Franco (2014) A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: sensitivity to initial uncertainties. Advances in Space Research, 53 (3), 490-508. (doi:10.1016/j.asr.2013.11.038).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A high order method to quickly assess the effect that uncertainties produce on orbital conjunctions through a numerical high-fidelity propagator is presented. In particular, the dependency of time and distance of closest approach to initial uncertainties on position and velocity of both objects involved in a conjunction is studied. The approach relies on a numerical integration based on differential algebraic techniques and a high-order algorithm that expands the time and distance of closest approach in Taylor series with respect to relevant uncertainties. The modeled perturbations are atmospheric drag, using NRLMSISE-00 air density model, solar radiation pressure with shadow, third body perturbation using JPL’s DE405 ephemeris, and EGM2008 gravity model. The polynomial approximation of the final position is used as an input to compute analytically the expansion of time and distance of closest approach. As a result, the analysis of a close encounter can be performed through fast, multiple evaluations of Taylor polynomials. Test cases with objects ranging from LEO to GEO regimes are considered to assess the performances and the accuracy of the proposed method.

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e-pub ahead of print date: 26 November 2013
Published date: 1 February 2014
Keywords: space debris, conjunction analysis, differential algebra
Organisations: Astronautics Group

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Local EPrints ID: 360784
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/360784
ISSN: 0273-1177
PURE UUID: 496b927e-211d-401a-8cdf-6f3de0ab320a

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Date deposited: 02 Jan 2014 15:12
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 15:42

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Contributors

Author: Alessandro Morselli
Author: Pierluigi Di Lizia
Author: Franco Bernelli Zazzera

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