A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise
A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise
During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9?m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000?ppmv.
palaeoceanography, palaeoclimate, climate-change impacts, projection and prediction
1-7
Rohling, Eelco J.
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Haigh, Ivan D.
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Foster, Gavin L.
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Roberts, Andrew P.
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Grant, Katharine M.
f9d9fa1b-62f3-4e90-a6f0-b46bc213fdb2
12 December 2013
Rohling, Eelco J.
a2a27ef2-fcce-4c71-907b-e692b5ecc685
Haigh, Ivan D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Foster, Gavin L.
fbaa7255-7267-4443-a55e-e2a791213022
Roberts, Andrew P.
4f062491-5408-4edb-8dd1-140c6a42e93f
Grant, Katharine M.
f9d9fa1b-62f3-4e90-a6f0-b46bc213fdb2
Rohling, Eelco J., Haigh, Ivan D., Foster, Gavin L., Roberts, Andrew P. and Grant, Katharine M.
(2013)
A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.
Scientific Reports, 3 (3461), .
(doi:10.1038/srep03461).
Abstract
During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9?m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000?ppmv.
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Published date: 12 December 2013
Keywords:
palaeoceanography, palaeoclimate, climate-change impacts, projection and prediction
Organisations:
Physical Oceanography, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 361849
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/361849
PURE UUID: f4a06578-5a41-448a-871a-7caed3a6c1f2
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Date deposited: 04 Feb 2014 13:41
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:35
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Author:
Andrew P. Roberts
Author:
Katharine M. Grant
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