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Structural models in consumer credit

Structural models in consumer credit
Structural models in consumer credit
We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one that leads to a simple analytical solution for the probability of default. We apply the proposed model to portfolios of consumer loans introducing a factor to account for the mean influence of systemic economic factors on individuals. This results in a hybrid structural-reduced-form model. And comparisons are made with the Basel II approach. Our conclusions partially support that approach for modelling the credit risk of portfolios of retail credit.
finance, stochastic processes, credit risk, consumer lending, portfolio modelling
0377-2217
1569-1581
Muniz de Andrade, Fabio Wendling
351d5505-92dc-45b8-93a0-97b2df2aa212
Thomas, Lyn
a3ce3068-328b-4bce-889f-965b0b9d2362
Muniz de Andrade, Fabio Wendling
351d5505-92dc-45b8-93a0-97b2df2aa212
Thomas, Lyn
a3ce3068-328b-4bce-889f-965b0b9d2362

Muniz de Andrade, Fabio Wendling and Thomas, Lyn (2007) Structural models in consumer credit. European Journal of Operational Research, 183 (3), 1569-1581. (doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2006.07.049).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one that leads to a simple analytical solution for the probability of default. We apply the proposed model to portfolios of consumer loans introducing a factor to account for the mean influence of systemic economic factors on individuals. This results in a hybrid structural-reduced-form model. And comparisons are made with the Basel II approach. Our conclusions partially support that approach for modelling the credit risk of portfolios of retail credit.

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More information

Published date: 16 December 2007
Keywords: finance, stochastic processes, credit risk, consumer lending, portfolio modelling

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 36199
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/36199
ISSN: 0377-2217
PURE UUID: a3a50c0a-766d-4789-ac5d-83165c9f76d8

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Date deposited: 12 Jan 2007
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 07:56

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Contributors

Author: Fabio Wendling Muniz de Andrade
Author: Lyn Thomas

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