The Democratic Republic of Congo conflict (1998-2004): assessing excess deaths based on war and non-war scenarios

Abstract

To assess excess deaths linked to the 1998-2004 armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the International Rescue Committee conducted a series of five surveys over a seven years period (2000–2007). The IRC estimated excess deaths of 5.4 million for the period 1998-2007. Using an alternative method this study combines four different data sources – 1984 DRC Population Census; 1995 and 2001 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey – to assess excess population loss. Indirect techniques are used to derive estimates and cohort component projections conducted for factual and counter-factual scenarios using varying assumptions to derive mortality estimates. This study’s excess population loss is estimated at: 2.4 million for a closed population; 1.7 million when migration data are incorporated. The study finds that the choice of mortality baseline determines the level of excess population loss. Mortality is exceptionally high in the Congo regardless of the method or assumptions used. Ongoing work focusses on refining assumptions and assessing the extent of competing causes of mortality. In the same way, the extent of uncertainty associated with both this study’s methods and components of population change are the object of further analyses.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Andrew Hinde: orcid.org/0000-0002-8909-9152

ORCID for Jakub Bijak: orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040

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