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Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise
Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise
There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.
Haigh, Ivan D.
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Wahl, Thomas
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Rohling, Eelco J.
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Price, René M.
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Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.
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Calafat, Francisco M.
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Dangendorf, Sönke
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Haigh, Ivan D.
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Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Rohling, Eelco J.
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Price, René M.
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Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.
393dcddd-f9fa-4e41-ac74-1116a8c5ad88
Calafat, Francisco M.
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Dangendorf, Sönke
ba1c5cbe-a385-41dc-8a46-da8cd36cf19d

Haigh, Ivan D., Wahl, Thomas, Rohling, Eelco J., Price, René M., Pattiaratchi, Charitha B., Calafat, Francisco M. and Dangendorf, Sönke (2014) Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise. Nature Communications, 5, [3635]. (doi:10.1038/ncomms4635).

Record type: Article

Abstract

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

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Accepted/In Press date: 13 March 2014
e-pub ahead of print date: 14 April 2014
Published date: 14 April 2014
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group, Physical Oceanography, Marine Physics and Ocean Climate, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 364939
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/364939
PURE UUID: 3bc3bf85-51d4-451d-9005-11621302d8b0
ORCID for Ivan D. Haigh: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9722-3061
ORCID for Eelco J. Rohling: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5349-2158

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Date deposited: 15 May 2014 08:59
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:26

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Contributors

Author: Ivan D. Haigh ORCID iD
Author: Thomas Wahl
Author: René M. Price
Author: Charitha B. Pattiaratchi
Author: Francisco M. Calafat
Author: Sönke Dangendorf

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