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Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation

Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation
Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation
The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System (CYCOFOS) has been producing operational flow forecasts of the northeastern Levantine Basin since 2002 and has been substantially improved in 2005. CYCOFOS uses the POM flow model, and recently, within the frame of the MFSTEP project, the flow model was upgraded to use the hourly SKIRON atmospheric forcing, and its resolution was increased from 2.5 km to 1.8 km. The CYCOFOS model is now nested in the ALERMO regional model from the University of Athens, which is nested within the MFS basin model. The Variational Initialization and FOrcing Platform (VIFOP) has been implemented to reduce the numerical transient processes following initialization. Moreover, a five-day forecast is repeated every day, providing more detailed and more accurate information. Forecast results are posted on the web page http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/cycofos. The new, daily, high-resolution forecasts agree well with the ALERMO regional model. The agreement is better and results more reasonable when VIFOP is used. Active and slave experiments suggest that a four-week active period produces realistic results with more small-scale features. For runs in September 2004, biases with remote sensing sea surface temperature are less than 0.6°C with similar expressions of the flow field present in both. Remotely-observed coastal upwelling south of Cyprus and advection of cool water from the Rhodes Gyre to the southern shores of Cyprus are also modeled. In situ observed hydrographic data from south of Cyprus are similar to the corresponding forecast fields. Both indicate the relatively fresh subsurface Atlantic Water and a near-surface anticyclone south of Cyprus for August/September of 2004 and September 2005. Plans for further model improvement include assimilation of observed XBT temperature profiles, CTD profiles from drifters and gliders, and CT data from the CYCOFOS ocean observatory.
1812-0792
31-47
Zodiatis, G.
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Lardner, R.
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Hayes, D.R.
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Georgiou, G.
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Sofianos, S.
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Skliris, N.
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Lascaratos, A.
168181e0-1bce-4123-be04-853e59b69ed7
Zodiatis, G.
ad317639-8f2e-47ca-909c-b21217ce2629
Lardner, R.
814ff764-cf11-4fb1-8f47-8a2cf7db2994
Hayes, D.R.
1ff2d938-3a28-4cf6-a309-da9af9a0554c
Georgiou, G.
6141795d-706b-4157-9edd-5c159f335ffa
Sofianos, S.
815ee3cd-92b0-4975-a312-6ca783dc2e6b
Skliris, N.
07af7484-2e14-49aa-9cd3-1979ea9b064e
Lascaratos, A.
168181e0-1bce-4123-be04-853e59b69ed7

Zodiatis, G., Lardner, R., Hayes, D.R., Georgiou, G., Sofianos, S., Skliris, N. and Lascaratos, A. (2008) Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation. Ocean Science, 4 (1), 31-47. (doi:10.5194/os-4-31-2008).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System (CYCOFOS) has been producing operational flow forecasts of the northeastern Levantine Basin since 2002 and has been substantially improved in 2005. CYCOFOS uses the POM flow model, and recently, within the frame of the MFSTEP project, the flow model was upgraded to use the hourly SKIRON atmospheric forcing, and its resolution was increased from 2.5 km to 1.8 km. The CYCOFOS model is now nested in the ALERMO regional model from the University of Athens, which is nested within the MFS basin model. The Variational Initialization and FOrcing Platform (VIFOP) has been implemented to reduce the numerical transient processes following initialization. Moreover, a five-day forecast is repeated every day, providing more detailed and more accurate information. Forecast results are posted on the web page http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/cycofos. The new, daily, high-resolution forecasts agree well with the ALERMO regional model. The agreement is better and results more reasonable when VIFOP is used. Active and slave experiments suggest that a four-week active period produces realistic results with more small-scale features. For runs in September 2004, biases with remote sensing sea surface temperature are less than 0.6°C with similar expressions of the flow field present in both. Remotely-observed coastal upwelling south of Cyprus and advection of cool water from the Rhodes Gyre to the southern shores of Cyprus are also modeled. In situ observed hydrographic data from south of Cyprus are similar to the corresponding forecast fields. Both indicate the relatively fresh subsurface Atlantic Water and a near-surface anticyclone south of Cyprus for August/September of 2004 and September 2005. Plans for further model improvement include assimilation of observed XBT temperature profiles, CTD profiles from drifters and gliders, and CT data from the CYCOFOS ocean observatory.

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Published date: 4 February 2008
Organisations: Physical Oceanography

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 365225
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/365225
ISSN: 1812-0792
PURE UUID: 06e89f55-5b1e-4c43-8eb0-e68278c5f9ba
ORCID for N. Skliris: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2473-2586

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Date deposited: 28 May 2014 09:49
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:39

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Contributors

Author: G. Zodiatis
Author: R. Lardner
Author: D.R. Hayes
Author: G. Georgiou
Author: S. Sofianos
Author: N. Skliris ORCID iD
Author: A. Lascaratos

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