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Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment

Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment
Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment
Individual-based models of infectious disease transmission depend on accurate quantification of fine-scale patterns of human movement. Existing models of movement either pertain to overly coarse scales, simulate some aspects of movement but not others, or were designed specifically for populations in developed countries. Here, we propose a generalizable framework for simulating the locations that an individual visits, time allocation across those locations, and population-level variation therein. As a case study, we fit alternative models for each of five aspects of movement (number, distance from home and types of locations visited; frequency and duration of visits) to interview data from 157 residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru. Comparison of alternative models showed that location type and distance from home were significant determinants of the locations that individuals visited and how much time they spent there. We also found that for most locations, residents of two neighbourhoods displayed indistinguishable preferences for visiting locations at various distances, despite differing distributions of locations around those neighbourhoods. Finally, simulated patterns of time allocation matched the interview data in a number of ways, suggesting that our framework constitutes a sound basis for simulating fine-scale movement and for investigating factors that influence it.
activity space, agent-based model, co-location and contact networks, human mobility, simulation, synthetic population
1-13
Perkins, T.A.
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Garcia, A.J.
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Paz-Soldan, V.A.
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Stoddard, S.T.
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Reiner, R.C.
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Vazquez-Prokopec, G.
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Bisanzio, D.
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Morrison, A.C.
ddac5c8b-f51a-45c2-b337-8da757b1d13f
Halsey, E.S.
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Kochel, T.J.
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Smith, D.L.
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Kitron, U.
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Scott, T.W.
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Tatem, A.J.
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Perkins, T.A.
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Garcia, A.J.
1aaef0c7-66d4-4d3b-9804-925c6e6698a1
Paz-Soldan, V.A.
1bf64a54-110c-4b09-9498-e3bdbc61b7a0
Stoddard, S.T.
b4902296-4451-4429-9bb6-4acf10bed761
Reiner, R.C.
e630b885-d051-4874-bdb7-294f3319e0e9
Vazquez-Prokopec, G.
b82c0a4a-06e2-4afe-ba77-02e776813440
Bisanzio, D.
9c0de9ba-b723-4e35-9bb9-c477e8a74273
Morrison, A.C.
ddac5c8b-f51a-45c2-b337-8da757b1d13f
Halsey, E.S.
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Kochel, T.J.
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Smith, D.L.
f7c68c42-0bb1-4698-a4bf-da9355a5c10f
Kitron, U.
61becc60-05b2-49fa-be5b-88e22d436238
Scott, T.W.
108fb9b3-47e2-4ad9-b77f-0705c0389822
Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e

Perkins, T.A., Garcia, A.J., Paz-Soldan, V.A., Stoddard, S.T., Reiner, R.C., Vazquez-Prokopec, G., Bisanzio, D., Morrison, A.C., Halsey, E.S., Kochel, T.J., Smith, D.L., Kitron, U., Scott, T.W. and Tatem, A.J. (2014) Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 11 (99), 1-13. (doi:10.1098/?rsif.2014.0642).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Individual-based models of infectious disease transmission depend on accurate quantification of fine-scale patterns of human movement. Existing models of movement either pertain to overly coarse scales, simulate some aspects of movement but not others, or were designed specifically for populations in developed countries. Here, we propose a generalizable framework for simulating the locations that an individual visits, time allocation across those locations, and population-level variation therein. As a case study, we fit alternative models for each of five aspects of movement (number, distance from home and types of locations visited; frequency and duration of visits) to interview data from 157 residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru. Comparison of alternative models showed that location type and distance from home were significant determinants of the locations that individuals visited and how much time they spent there. We also found that for most locations, residents of two neighbourhoods displayed indistinguishable preferences for visiting locations at various distances, despite differing distributions of locations around those neighbourhoods. Finally, simulated patterns of time allocation matched the interview data in a number of ways, suggesting that our framework constitutes a sound basis for simulating fine-scale movement and for investigating factors that influence it.

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More information

Published date: 6 October 2014
Keywords: activity space, agent-based model, co-location and contact networks, human mobility, simulation, synthetic population
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 368330
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/368330
PURE UUID: bd066eab-400a-458f-946b-4e79ef831c20
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 12 Sep 2014 11:42
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:43

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Contributors

Author: T.A. Perkins
Author: A.J. Garcia
Author: V.A. Paz-Soldan
Author: S.T. Stoddard
Author: R.C. Reiner
Author: G. Vazquez-Prokopec
Author: D. Bisanzio
Author: A.C. Morrison
Author: E.S. Halsey
Author: T.J. Kochel
Author: D.L. Smith
Author: U. Kitron
Author: T.W. Scott
Author: A.J. Tatem ORCID iD

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