The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy

Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy
Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy
Italy is a case study in lowest-low fertility. Its internal heterogeneity is substantial and changes over time. Historically, the South had higher fertility, but in recent years it the North has become the area with the highest fertility. This paper adopts a diffusionist perspective to fertility to study the current temporal and spatial trends in Italian provincial fertility, considering indicators of secularization, female employment, migrant fertility and economic development. We make use of geographically weighted regressions and spatial panel regressions from spatial econometrics to model explicitly spatial dependence in fertility among Italian provinces over the period between 1999 and 2010. Results show that spatial dependence in provincial fertility persists even after controlling for standard correlates of fertility, consistently with a diffusionist perspective. Further, we find that the local association between fertility and its correlates is not homogeneous across provinces. The strength and in some cases also the direction of such associations vary spatially.
low fertility, italy, geographically weighted regression, spatial panel models
2042-4116
57
ESRC Centre for Population Change
Vitali, Agnese
56acb6b8-5161-4106-9e73-20712840d675
Billari, Francesco
6d720d80-0134-46bf-857f-685c09e9b005
McGowan, Teresa
4524e894-04de-4822-8508-f4b966e12ae2
Vitali, Agnese
56acb6b8-5161-4106-9e73-20712840d675
Billari, Francesco
6d720d80-0134-46bf-857f-685c09e9b005
McGowan, Teresa
4524e894-04de-4822-8508-f4b966e12ae2

Vitali, Agnese and Billari, Francesco , McGowan, Teresa (ed.) (2014) Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy (ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper Series, 57) Southampton, GB. ESRC Centre for Population Change 33pp.

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

Italy is a case study in lowest-low fertility. Its internal heterogeneity is substantial and changes over time. Historically, the South had higher fertility, but in recent years it the North has become the area with the highest fertility. This paper adopts a diffusionist perspective to fertility to study the current temporal and spatial trends in Italian provincial fertility, considering indicators of secularization, female employment, migrant fertility and economic development. We make use of geographically weighted regressions and spatial panel regressions from spatial econometrics to model explicitly spatial dependence in fertility among Italian provinces over the period between 1999 and 2010. Results show that spatial dependence in provincial fertility persists even after controlling for standard correlates of fertility, consistently with a diffusionist perspective. Further, we find that the local association between fertility and its correlates is not homogeneous across provinces. The strength and in some cases also the direction of such associations vary spatially.

Text
2014_WP57_Changing_determinants_of_low_fertility_Vitali_et_al.pdf - Other
Download (2MB)

More information

Published date: December 2014
Keywords: low fertility, italy, geographically weighted regression, spatial panel models
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography, Centre for Population Change

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 373055
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/373055
ISSN: 2042-4116
PURE UUID: 641f7242-4509-4ac8-8472-7766f3e4198d
ORCID for Agnese Vitali: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0029-9447
ORCID for Teresa McGowan: ORCID iD orcid.org/0009-0002-9231-3743

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 06 Jan 2015 13:00
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:23

Export record

Contributors

Author: Agnese Vitali ORCID iD
Author: Francesco Billari
Editor: Teresa McGowan ORCID iD

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×