24/7 population modelling for enhanced assessment of exposure to natural hazards

Abstract

There is a growing need for accurate spatio-temporal population estimates free from arbitrary administrative boundaries and temporal divisions to make enhanced assessments of population exposure to natural hazards. The approach proposed here combines the use of a spatio-temporal gridded population model to estimate temporary variations in population with natural hazard exposure estimations. It has been exemplified through a Southampton (UK) centred application using Environment Agency flood map inundation data. Results demonstrate that large fluctuations in the population within flood risk zones occur. Analysis indicates a diurnal shift in exposure to fluvial and tidal flooding, particularly attributed to the working age population. This highlights the improvements achievable to flood risk management as well as potential application to other natural hazard scenarios both within the UK and globally.

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Identifiers

ORCID for David Martin: orcid.org/0000-0003-0397-0769

ORCID for Samantha Cockings: orcid.org/0000-0003-3333-4376

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