Dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns: UK evidence

Ap Gwilym, O., Morgan, G. and Thomas, S. (2000) Dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns: UK evidence. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 27 (3-4), 261-281.

Abstract

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.

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