Density based approach for collision risk computation

Abstract

In February 2015 the satellite DMSP-F13 exploded in orbit producing 160 new trackable pieces of space debris. In the following days, operators assessed how the explosion affects the risk for their spacecraft, considering only debris objects larger than 10 cm. However, also smaller fragments are an important part of the debris population as any collision with objects larger than 1 mm may interfere with the spacecraft operation. The impact of a new fragmentation event considering also the presence of small fragments can be assessed by studying the fragment cloud in terms of its spatial density, applying the proposed method CiELO. Our formulation allows representing the long-term evolution of a large number of fragments with an analytical model based on the continuity equation. Moreover, it guarantees a limited computational effort compared to the standard approach of following each individual object. Once the cloud density is known, it is possible to build a collision map that identifies which are the most affected regions of space as a consequence of the breakup. Coupling this map with a database of spacecraft or space debris objects it is also possible to identify the most exposed targets. This kind of maps can be useful for operators to have a fast estimation of the increase in the long term collision risk on their missions

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Identifiers

ORCID for Camilla Colombo: orcid.org/0000-0001-9636-9360

ORCID for Hugh Lewis: orcid.org/0000-0002-3946-8757

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