Predictability in community dynamics
Predictability in community dynamics
The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no‐lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.
293-306
Blonder, Benjamin
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Moulton, Derek E.
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Blois, Jessica
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Enquist, Brian J.
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Graae, Bente J.
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Macias-Fauria, Marc
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McGill, Brian
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Nogue, Sandra
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Ordonez, Alejandro
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Sandel, Brody
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Svenning, Jens-Christian
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March 2017
Blonder, Benjamin
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Moulton, Derek E.
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Blois, Jessica
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Enquist, Brian J.
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Graae, Bente J.
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Macias-Fauria, Marc
d07a7404-c182-4ceb-8fc5-b7608c485717
McGill, Brian
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Nogue, Sandra
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Ordonez, Alejandro
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Sandel, Brody
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Svenning, Jens-Christian
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Blonder, Benjamin, Moulton, Derek E., Blois, Jessica, Enquist, Brian J., Graae, Bente J., Macias-Fauria, Marc, McGill, Brian, Nogue, Sandra, Ordonez, Alejandro, Sandel, Brody and Svenning, Jens-Christian
(2017)
Predictability in community dynamics.
Ecology Letters, 20 (3), .
(doi:10.1111/ele.12736).
Abstract
The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no‐lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.
Text
blonder%252520lag%252520theory%252520paper%252520v11%252520clean_DEM_sn.docx
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 22 December 2016
e-pub ahead of print date: 1 February 2017
Published date: March 2017
Organisations:
Palaeoenvironment Laboratory (PLUS)
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 404194
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/404194
ISSN: 1461-023X
PURE UUID: 169a3919-4a8a-4666-9e13-d4be2f9c6430
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Date deposited: 03 Jan 2017 14:52
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:23
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Contributors
Author:
Benjamin Blonder
Author:
Derek E. Moulton
Author:
Jessica Blois
Author:
Brian J. Enquist
Author:
Bente J. Graae
Author:
Marc Macias-Fauria
Author:
Brian McGill
Author:
Alejandro Ordonez
Author:
Brody Sandel
Author:
Jens-Christian Svenning
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