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Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment

Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment
Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment
An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life, new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact effects (strong winds, overpressure shockwave, thermal radiation, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition, cratering and tsunamis) with lethality to human populations. With the new vulnerability models ARMOR estimates casualties of an impact under consideration of the local population and geography. The presented algorithms and models are employed in two case studies to estimate total casualties as well as the damage contribution of each impact effect. The case studies highlight that aerothermal effects are most harmful except for deep water impacts, where tsunamis are the dominant hazard. Continental shelves serve a protective function against the tsunami hazard caused by impactors on the shelf. Furthermore, the calculation of impact consequences facilitates asteroid risk estimation to better characterize a given threat and the concept of risk as well as its applicability to the asteroid impact scenario are presented.
1086-9379
Rumpf, Clemens
39d27fd9-b5f8-405c-9c16-abf847ce2869
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Atkinson, Peter
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Rumpf, Clemens
39d27fd9-b5f8-405c-9c16-abf847ce2869
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Atkinson, Peter
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b

Rumpf, Clemens, Lewis, Hugh and Atkinson, Peter (2017) Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment. Meteoritics & Planetary Science. (doi:10.1111/maps.12861).

Record type: Article

Abstract

An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life, new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact effects (strong winds, overpressure shockwave, thermal radiation, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition, cratering and tsunamis) with lethality to human populations. With the new vulnerability models ARMOR estimates casualties of an impact under consideration of the local population and geography. The presented algorithms and models are employed in two case studies to estimate total casualties as well as the damage contribution of each impact effect. The case studies highlight that aerothermal effects are most harmful except for deep water impacts, where tsunamis are the dominant hazard. Continental shelves serve a protective function against the tsunami hazard caused by impactors on the shelf. Furthermore, the calculation of impact consequences facilitates asteroid risk estimation to better characterize a given threat and the concept of risk as well as its applicability to the asteroid impact scenario are presented.

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Vulnerability_Models_Risk_MAPS - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 4 February 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 27 March 2017
Organisations: Geography & Environment, Astronautics Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 406355
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/406355
ISSN: 1086-9379
PURE UUID: 1e2bb07e-31c8-47ec-b0de-dbf121676443
ORCID for Hugh Lewis: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3946-8757
ORCID for Peter Atkinson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-6880

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 10 Mar 2017 10:45
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 05:04

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Contributors

Author: Clemens Rumpf
Author: Hugh Lewis ORCID iD
Author: Peter Atkinson ORCID iD

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