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Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes

Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes
Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes
We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.
1748-9326
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Selten, Frank
4104a5ed-6fe6-444d-8d23-25290516db8e
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Selten, Frank
4104a5ed-6fe6-444d-8d23-25290516db8e
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13

Haarsma, Rein, Selten, Frank and Drijfhout, Sybren (2015) Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9), [094007]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094007).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.

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Accepted/In Press date: 20 August 2015
Published date: 8 September 2015
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 407463
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/407463
ISSN: 1748-9326
PURE UUID: 938f2fb7-e739-461c-813c-04373a3c1a15
ORCID for Sybren Drijfhout: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5325-7350

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Date deposited: 12 Apr 2017 01:04
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:12

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Contributors

Author: Rein Haarsma
Author: Frank Selten

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