Modelling risk trade-off

Klein, J.H. (1993) Modelling risk trade-off. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 44, (5), 445-460.


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This paper considers the trade-offs that may be made in the risk and uncertainty associated with various performance criteria of a project activity. Specifically, duration, cost and quality are the criteria considered, and the uncertainties in them are regarded as manifestations of the intrinsic risk of the activity. Three complementary approaches to conceptualizing and modelling risk trade-offs, as an aid to project planning, are presented in the context of a single activity. A cognitive mapping approach encourages articulation and exploration of ideas about risk trade-offs. A contingency-response analysis approach aids detailed risk contingency planning. A risk-level approach provides a picture of risk exposure options. This last approach, in particular, is developed in the context of projects consisting of sequences of activities.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Theoretical Paper
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Management
ePrint ID: 42667
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
Date Deposited: 14 Dec 2006
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 12:15

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