Reasoning with criminal evidence: are people logical or probabilistic thinkers?
Cowley, Michelle (2007) Reasoning with criminal evidence: are people logical or probabilistic thinkers? In, EPS, London Meeting, London, UK, 04 - 05 Jan 2007. 18pp.
Download
Full text not available from this repository.
Description/Abstract
An important question for reasoning theories is whether people reason with evidence rationally. Knowledge of previous convictions is a type of criminal evidence that may bias a jury. Previous convictions are logically unrelated to the facts of a present case, but do people understand this logical distinction? An experiment examined how participants reasoned with evidence in a real life case in which a child died. The accused has similar previous convictions. Participants reasoned about the case in one of three conditions: the case without knowledge of previous convictions; the case with knowledge of one previous conviction; the case with knowledge of two previous convictions. Participants were asked to: (i) conclude whether they thought the man was ‘guilty’, ‘not guilty’, or ‘cannot decide’, and (ii) rate on a scale of 1 to 10 how guilty they thought the man was. The results showed that participants chose ‘cannot decide’ regardless of the number of previous convictions (p<.0005), but their guilt ratings increased with the number of previous convictions disclosed (p<.0005). The results suggest that people understand guilt is logically unrelated to previous convictions, but likelihood ratings of guilt were biased. One theoretical implication is that people may reason probabilistically towards logical conclusions.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Sponsored by Rebecca Lawson |
| Related URLs: | |
| Subjects: | K Law > KD England and Wales B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology |
| Divisions: | University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Sociology and Social Policy |
| Item ID: | 43578 |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Feb 2007 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Mar 2012 12:29 |
| Contributors: | Cowley, Michelle (Author) |
| Date: | 2007 |
| Additional Information: | Sponsored by Rebecca Lawson |
| Status: | Unpublished |
| URI: | http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/43578 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
