Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments


Griffiths, G. and Trembanis, A. (2007) Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments. In, 15th International Symposium on Unmanned Untethered Submersible Technology (UUST 07). 15th International Symposium on Unmanned Untethered Submersible Technology (UUST07) Lee, USA, Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute, 17pp.

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Description/Abstract

Each time an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV)
is used in the sea there is a non-zero probability of
loss. Quantifying probability of loss is not an exact
science; therefore much depends on the fault history
of the vehicle, the operational environment and the
complex relationships between the consequences of
faults or incidents and the environment. While this
problem may be stated in scientific terms, in practice,
there is no solution through scientific means alone.
This is an example of ‘trans-science’. We suggest that
an approach based on the formal process of eliciting
expert judgement may be an effective means of
approaching this problem, as the process has been
used successfully for other trans-scientific questions.
The paper provides an introduction to the process of
eliciting expert judgement, outlines four exemplar
environments: coastal, open water, under sea ice and
under shelf ice, and gives a worked example of one
expert’s judgement on the probability of loss in the
four environments arising from a real fault with the
Autosub1 AUV. Using the fault history of the
Autosub3 AUV, included in the Annex, we ask
experts from among UUST attendees (and others) to
take part in this expert judgement elicitation. Based
on the results of this elicitation we aim to publish a
paper in the peer-reviewed literature.

Item Type: Book Section
Related URLs:
Subjects: T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General)
Divisions: University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Engineering Sciences
University Structure - Pre August 2011 > National Oceanography Centre (NERC)
ePrint ID: 48437
Date Deposited: 21 Sep 2007
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2014 18:32
Publisher: Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/48437

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